---
title: "New Poll Puts Blackburn Ahead in Tennessee Governor Race"
url: https://www.hereknoxville.com/2026/10/21/tennessee-governor-poll-blackburn-leads-green-hatley/
date: 2026-10-21T09:50:03-04:00
modified: 2026-10-21T09:50:03-04:00
author: "HERE City State Desk"
categories: ["Politics"]
site: "HEREKnoxville"
attribution: "HEREKnoxville"
---

# New Poll Puts Blackburn Ahead in Tennessee Governor Race

> NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn holds a lead of about 11 and a half points over Democrat Jerri Green in the race for Tennessee governor, according to a statewide survey released by Spry Strategies two weeks before the Nov. 3 election. The firm reached 635 likely voters by text message between Oct.

*Source: [HEREKnoxville](https://www.hereknoxville.com/2026/10/21/tennessee-governor-poll-blackburn-leads-green-hatley/) — October 21, 2026 by HERE City State Desk*

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn holds a lead of about 11 and a half points over Democrat Jerri Green in the race for Tennessee governor, according to a statewide survey released by Spry Strategies two weeks before the Nov. 3 election.

The firm reached 635 likely voters by text message between Oct. 10 and 16 and put Blackburn at 43.5 percent and Green at 32 percent. Independent David Hatley drew 11.9 percent and independent Lauren Pinkston 1.4 percent, while one voter in 10 had not made up their mind. The margin of error is roughly 3.9 points either way.

Blackburn led in all three grand divisions of the state, with her widest gap in East Tennessee and her narrowest in West Tennessee, where Green trailed 42.3 percent to 36.1 percent. Rural voters favored Blackburn by more than 35 points, and she also carried the suburbs. Her support among men and women was nearly identical.

Independents told a different story. That group leaned toward Green at 43 percent, with Hatley at 20 percent and Blackburn at 16 percent. Hatley was the best-liked of the four candidates among independents, and Pinkston remained a mystery to most of them, with nearly half saying they had never heard of her.

Green still has room to introduce herself statewide. Close to 39 percent of likely voters either had no opinion of her or did not know who she was. Among the small group of undecided voters pushed to pick a name, the largest share chose someone other than the four candidates, and Blackburn edged the rest of the field.

The sample tilted right. About 53 percent of those surveyed called themselves Republicans and 23 percent Democrats, and most lived in rural areas or small towns. None of the campaigns for governor has reported paying Spry this cycle, though the firm has worked for House Speaker Cameron Sexton and the Republican caucuses in the state House and Senate.

The poll also measured Blackburn in her current job. Half of likely voters, 49 percent, approved of her work in the Senate and 46.1 percent disapproved, while Sen. Bill Hagerty, who is on the ballot for reelection, posted a 52.2 percent approval rating.